Background:
People who are more likely to be vulnerable in an emergency often do not realise their own increased susceptibility to harm; this misrecognition undermines protective behaviours, as individuals are less likely to take action if they do not perceive themselves to be at risk. According to the Health Belief Model and Protection Motivation Theory, perceived likelihood and perceived severity are critical drivers of protective action. However, these perceptions are frequently distorted by cognitive biases, lack of situational awareness, and social or cultural factors.
Emerging research in disaster risk reduction and behavioural science suggests that personalised feedback can significantly improve risk perception and preparedness. Yet, there is a gap in tools that help individuals assess their own vulnerability in real time, especially in complex emergencies such as Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) incidents, flooding, or public health crises.
There is therefore a need to understand why individuals do not recognise their own vulnerability in specific emergency contexts, how individual and situational factors interact to shape perceived risk, and the potential value of different interventions in facilitating improved individual understanding of risk and enhanced protective behaviours.
Project aims:
The project aims to: i) identify psychological, social, and contextual factors that influence accurate self-assessment of risk in relation to an emergency; ii) design and test a tool that generates an individual risk assessment based on situational and individual data; and iii) evaluate the tool’s impact on risk perception and behavioural intentions in simulated emergency scenarios.
Methods:
Phase 1: Literature review and conceptual framework
A comprehensive review of risk perception models, vulnerability theory, and behavioural interventions will inform the conceptual design of the risk assessment tool.
Phase 2: Qualitative research
Semi-structured interviews and focus groups with individuals who have experienced emergencies (e.g., flooding, public health crises) will explore how they perceived their vulnerability and what influenced their protective actions.
Phase 3: Tool development
Using insights from Phase 2, a prototype tool will be developed. It will integrate: situational factors (e.g., proximity to hazard, environmental cues); individual factors (e.g., age, health status, prior experience); behavioural prompts (e.g., recommended actions).
Phase 4: Experimental testing
Participants will be exposed to simulated emergency scenarios and randomised to receive either the tool-generated feedback or generic risk information. Changes in perceived risk and behavioural intentions will be measured.
Supervisors:
Dr Holly Carter (UKHSA), Dr Dale Weston (UKHSA), Dr Freya Mills (UKHSA), Dr Sarah Denford (University of Bristol)
Candidate requirements:
Applications are sought from high performing individuals who have, or are expected to obtain, at least a 2.1 degree (or equivalent) in behavioural or social science. Possession of a relevant Master's degree or research experience would be advantageous but is not required.
We welcome applications from those with non-standard qualifications who can demonstrate knowledge, experience and skills developed in the workplace, or elsewhere, relevant to the programme of study.
How to apply:
When applying, candidates must select the Population Health PhD programme and enter supervisor names as listed under the project title for which they are applying. Please state Health Protection Research Unit in Evaluation and Behavioural Science in the funding box.
Full details on what to include in your application can be found in the Admissions Statement.
Please note a Research Statement/Proposal is not required for this PhD.
Personal statement: Please also provide a personal statement that describes your training and experience so far, your motivation for doing a PhD, your motivations for applying to the University of Bristol, and why you think we should select you.
We are keen to support applicants from minority and under-represented backgrounds (based on protected characteristics) and those who have experienced other challenges or disadvantages. We encourage you to use your personal statement to ensure we can take these factors into account.
Funding
The studentship is fully funded by Health Protection Research Unit in Evaluation and Behavioural Science (HPRU EBS) for three years. The funding covers tuition fees for home students, a stipend at the UKRI rate (£20,780 in 2025/2026).
Overseas students are welcome to apply but you must pay the difference between the home and overseas fees. You must state clearly on your application how you will be paying the difference.
University of Bristol, Bristol Medical School
Bristol Medical School is the largest and one of the most diverse Schools in the University of Bristol, with approximately 930 members of staff and over 300 postgraduate doctoral research students. The School is a leading centre for research and teaching across Population Health Sciences and Translational Health Sciences. Research in the School is collaborative and multi-disciplinary, with staff coming from a wide range of academic disciplines and clinical specialties.
The 2021 Research Excellence Framework (REF) confirmed the University of Bristol’s position as a leading centre for health research. Bristol Medical School contributed to three Units of Assessment including UoA1 (Clinical Medicine), UoA2 (Public Health, Health Services and Primary Care) and UoA4 (Psychology, Psychiatry and Neuroscience). The UoA2 submission, comprising predominantly Medical School staff. was ranked 3rd in the UK with 94% of our submitted research outputs rated as world leading (4*) or internationally excellent (3*). Submissions to UoA1 and UoA4 were shared with varying degrees of representation with the Faculty of Life Sciences. Respectively UoA1 and UoA4 had 94% and 84% of submitted research ranked as 4* or 3*, which represented increases in each category in the proportions of 4* ranked papers as well in growth in GPA rankings above the previous REF2014.
Within the Medical School are several major research centres, groups and programmes. More details can be found on the Medical School website.
Deadline:
Applications for this project will close at 16:00 GMT on Monday 26th January 2026.
Interviews will be in March 2026 .
The anticipated start date is September 2026.
